Aaron’s Oscar Predictions

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Best Motion Picture:BoyhoodThe race is probably down to Boyhood and Birdman, but I’m leaning with Boyhood. I think its main advantages are Linklater’s status as the Best Director frontrunner and its broader appeal – Birdman may be a little too stylized and esoteric for some Oscar voters. American Sniper may be the dark horse, but I think there will be enough voters that rank it low enough on their list to keep it away. The mere achievement of Boyhood and its broad, inoffensive appeal won’t garner as many low scores, with more consistent high scores.

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Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of EverythingWhile I’m not exactly happy with the list of nominees, this is maybe the toughest winner to predict. I think Carell and Cumberbatch are on the outside looking in, but I could realistically see Cooper, Keaton or Redmayne each winning. The more time goes by, the more I think Cooper might actually win. I’m leaning toward Redmayne, though, mostly for cynical reasons, as it provides the most showy transformation. That’s not to say Redmayne isn’t worthy, especially considering the lack of Oyelowo and Gyllenhaal.

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Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:Julianne Moore, Still AliceMight be the biggest lock of the night, though the competition is much stronger than the male counterparts. Rosamund Pike is the dark horse, and my personal favorite female performance of the year, but I think the film is too divisive among the voting body. Still Alice isn’t a daring film, but it’s far from the Lifetime movie it could have been and Moore’s solid performance is the biggest reason for that. The fact that she’s been nominated four other times without a win also leads to the obvious choice.

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Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:J.K. Simmons, WhiplashOutside of Duvall in The Judge (admittedly, a film I haven’t seen), all four other nominations would be more than worthy for a win. The J.K. Simmons train has been in full force, though, and that won’t stop on Sunday. It’s a showy performance, full of Oscar-clip fodder, but is also surprisingly deep and nuanced. Edward Norton is probably the second banana and his two previous nominations without a win may work in his favor. Unfortunately for Norton, Simmons is a long-heralded character actor who is stepping into the spotlight. The Academy typically goes for that sort of thing and doesn’t let it go unnoticed.

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Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:Patricia Arquette, BoyhoodOn the other side of the competition spectrum, Arquette doesn’t face much here. Streep is only there for window dressing, Knightley and Dern give good performances but not ones that will grab voters attention. Emma Stone is a legitimate dark horse but there isn’t enough buzz to overturn Arquette’s momentum. Arquette is also helped by having a leading sized role – change the title of Boyhood and replace two scenes, and she’s the lead of that film. That’s something that Oscar usually goes for.

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Best Achievement in Directing:Richard Linklater, BoyhoodWhile Boyhood’s Best Picture win is far from guaranteed, I would be legitimately surprised if Linklater doesn’t win this award. The voting body will understand the incredible commitment he put into the film and will reward him for that alone. He’s also an established filmmaker that is making his first serious breakout, so the timing is right. I think his success in both independent and more mainstream films works for him, as well.

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Best Animated Feature Film:How to Train Your Dragon 2My heart says The Tale of the Princess Kaguya, but my head says How to Train Your Dragon 2. Ghibli has a good track record with the Academy but this is probably going to the folks at Dreamworks. There was no way the first in the series was going to beat out Toy Story 3 back in 2011, so this is a minor makeup, as well.Other Predictions:Best Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest HotelBest Adapted ScreenplayThe Imitation GameBest Foreign Language Film: TimbuktuBest Cinematography: BirdmanBest Editing: BoyhoodBest Production Design: The Imitation GameBest Costume Design: MaleficentBest Makeup and Hairstyling: Guardians of the GalaxyBest Original Score: The Imitation GameBest Original Song: SelmaBest Sound Mixing: American SniperBest Sound Editing: InterstellarBest Visual Effects: InterstellarBest Documentary Feature: CitizenfourBest Documentary Short Subject: White EarthBest Animated Short: FeastBest Live Action Short: Parvaneh

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1 Response

  1. Xibalba says:

    Even though Whiplash was my fave movie of 2014 I would only give Simmons the Oscar purely because he is the best of a bad bunch. I found his performance far too showy and could have been achieved by a good handful of actors.

    Miles Teller’s performance as lead was stunning however but not good enough to get a nom in that category despite Cumberbatch, Keaton and Carell getting in. I believe Redmayne should win but in a close call against Oyelowo, Gyllenhaal and O’Connell(Starred Up)

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